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Events, dear boy, events.

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by Matthew Paul

To win the election on December 12, the Conservative Party just need to hold onto the supporters they have, and keep a lid on the horrid Brexit Party splitters. Boris needs to run a tight ship of a campaign, repeating a solid message about investment in public services and how everyone wants to GET BREXIT DONE. Easy, right? And it’s been working, to the extent that Nigel Farage himself is running scared from the electorate and won’t be contesting a seat.

Labour don’t have it so easy. They need to replicate the party’s Lazarus performance of 2017 and zoom up something like twelve points in the opinion polls over the next six weeks. And even when impressionable idiots were going about chanting “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” without black irony, it still wasn’t enough to actually win an election.

The Liberal Democrats need a different electoral system and can’t have one, so we needn’t worry much about them. At this election the Liberals will be back in their traditional and useful role as centre-left splitters; the more effective given their partial rehabilitation under Jo Swinson.

Plaid need this election like they need a hole in the head. In recent Welsh polling, The Party of Wales is festering in fourth place behind the Brexit gang. Ben Lake is under pressure in Ceredigion, and Plaid are unlikely to extend their reach into Brexity places in the valleys they once hoped to sweep clean of Labour MPs. Staring down this rabbit hole, Plaid Cecru are reverting to type and distracting themselves with an almighty internecine punch-up about whether or not to stand down in favour of the Liberal candidate in Montgomeryshire.

Things aren’t going swimmingly for any of the opposition parties. So why, on Wednesday, did the Conservative election campaign launch descend into an appalling shambles?

This time, at least it wasn’t fox hunting. We haven’t had that one yet; where some interviewer asks Boris Johnson if the Conservatives are going to bring back the unfairly reviled field sport, he says “yes, I like fox hunting, what” and Labour gleefully spend the election campaign talking about nothing else.

Boris can probably be trusted not to say he likes fox hunting, not least because his current partner Carrie Symonds hates fox hunting and if he says anything nice about it she will blow her top and make the red wine on white sofa business look like a mild difference of opinion. No British Prime Minister has yet conducted a successful General Election campaign from a Premier Inn or a mate’s spare room.

Unfortunately for Boris, it was what Harold Macmillan termed “Events, dear boy, events” that conspired to overshadow the launch. The tight ship was already taking on water before Boris got up to speak.

First, one of the great modern-day rituals around election time –the trawl through some neophyte candidate’s troublesome social media history– struck gold in the Gower when Conservative candidate Francesca O’Brien was found to have called, obviously in jest, for the humane extermination of the inhabitants of Channel 4’s Benefits Street.

A glorious typhoon of confected outrage at O’Brien’s ‘hatred of the poor’ ensued; led by humbug Labour candidate Tonia Antoniazzi, whose own social media pages are full of the kind of delicately nuanced political observation that would make a Russian submariner ashamed if his mother saw them.

The Tories were just putting this silly nonsense to bed when up pops Boris’s 2019 Lewes Bonfire co-Guy, Jacob Rees-Mogg, on a phone-in radio show.

O’Brien has been in front-line politics for about five minutes and won’t be the last person to have an iffy Facebook comment waved in her face. For Rees-Mogg there are no excuses. If you make it your personal shtick to go about looking unapologetically –pretentiously, even– rich and old-fashioned, there are certain things you need to be a bit careful about. Otherwise people might stop finding you an amusing, ‘authentic’ curiosity and get genuinely quite fed up with you.

High on the list of those things is Grenfell Tower. In a softball interview on Tuesday with a fawning Nick Ferrari, Rees-Mogg was asked if the tragedy in the tower had anything to do with the race or class of the people who lived there.

“No,” said the man in the room next door into Jacob’s earpiece. “It was the fault of the people who decided to clad a tower block in flammable material, and I hope they are brought swiftly to terrible justice”.

“No,” said Master Jacob. “I mean, you or I would have got out of that building if it was on fire. It’s just common sense.” If any one single thing loses the Conservatives the election, this –the idea that Tories see the poor as benighted Morlocks too stupid to run out of their own house when it’s on fire– will be it. Expect Master Jacob to be locked in the nursery for the rest of the campaign.

As if the fall-out from this Gaffusaurus Rex wasn’t enough, another previously dormant liability, overpromoted Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, chose his moment to go fizz puff phut BANG and explode in Boris’ face like a defective Catherine wheel, after it appeared he hadn’t been entirely frank about what he did or didn’t know, concerning what his then aide Ross England did or didn’t do in collapsing a rape trial.

Cairns’ departure from the Cabinet was no great loss to statesmanship or to Wales, but that wasn’t the final gaffe of the day, in respect of which the honours went to a stupid doctored campaign video which made it look as though Kier Starmer couldn’t answer a question about his own Brexit policy.

Boris Johnson won’t lose this election by making the same mistakes Theresa May made in 2017. But this was a poor start to the campaign. Events never lose their power to surprise and derail. It isn’t in the bag.

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No mercy for Nasty Neil

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‘Nasty Neil’ McEvoy is in the soup again.

Regular readers of this column will be familiar with Nasty Neil, the now-independent South Wales AM (after Plaid Cymru disembarrassed themselves of his affiliation), Cardiff City councillor, and general thorn in the side of the Cardiff Bay establishment.

Styling himself –minus the racist aggro– as a sort of Welsh Nat Tommy Robinson, Nasty Neil follows the whiff of controversy like some ASBO version of the Bisto kids. McEvoy is an obstreperous, uppity, bad-to-the-bone populist who seems well-liked amongst his constituents. This doesn’t go down at all well in the cosy, consensual atmosphere of the Senedd, where any sort of opposition to Welsh Labour is regarded as being in faintly poor taste.

Predictably, Welsh Government apparatchiks have got it in for Nasty Neil. This follows his spectacular decapitation of the Assembly’s Standards Commissioner, Sir Roderick Evans, who had to resign his post when McEvoy managed to get a recording of what sounded like the Commissioner and most of his staff going around the office saying that McEvoy (whom they were in the process of investigating) was a d**khead.

Now, Karma has smiled on Cardiff Bay and the politburo have extracted a measure of revenge. Following a four-day hearing before Cardiff Council’s Standards Committee, McEvoy was found to have breached Cardiff City Council’s code of conduct by bringing the council into disrepute and failing to treat a complainant with ‘respect and consideration’. He was suspended as a councillor for four months.

The complaint against Neil McEvoy arose in April and May last year, when a child at a privately-run care home used by the council told his parents he was repeatedly being assaulted. The parents told McEvoy and asked him to do something about it.

Nasty Neil, slightly stretching the received understanding of what it is to be a ‘corporate parent’, demanded access to the child, confronted staff at the home, and (in earshot of the staff) called the director of social services and the police to organise a welfare check when he was refused access.

At the Standards Committee hearing, the Public Services Ombudsman for Wales (who sees himself as a sort of Batman to McEvoy’s Joker), accused Nasty Neil of acting in a threatening way towards staff with his “chest puffed out”, “shoulders back” and “pointing his fingers”.

“Show me on the doll,” Counsel for Ombuds-Man may have asked, “where Nasty Neil pointed at you.”

She then accused McEvoy of displaying “a pattern of behaviour, that as soon as something doesn’t go your way, you [ask] to speak to the director.” “Can you see, Councillor,” she added, “that it is the way you do it that makes people feel intimidated?”

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How Labour won the argument

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By Matthew Paul

Even though Labour –according to Jeremy Corbyn– ‘won the argument’ last Thursday, the Tories comprehensively won at the traditionally more important business of getting votes. Simon Hart, Stephen Crabb and Jonathan Edwards all held their seats; the two Conservatives enjoying comfortable majorities over Labour (though it was Hart, not Crabb, who took Alun Cairns’ vacant job as Secretary of State for Wales).

Plaid Cymru, as predicted, had a pretty rotten night. They can take a little comfort from Ben Lake’s solid win in Ceredigion, and from seeing their majorities creep up in Y Fro Gymraeg. But the Party of Wales remains a party supported by only one in ten Welsh voters. Plaid made no progress at all outside its core areas; indeed its share of the vote has (with a very slight blip in 2015) been slowly on the slide for twenty years, from the 14.1% it won in the 2001 General Election, to 9.9% last Thursday. This is not a movement on the march.

Plaid’s aggressively anti-Brexit stance, and its ‘Unite to Remain’ alliance with wishy-washy Britnat parties was a huge strategic error. Mistletoe-clad traditionalists in Y Fro know perfectly well that the party is pro-EU and didn’t need reminding. Brexity boyos in the valleys looking for an alternative to Labour found it a massive turn-off.

In Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire, Plaid’s vote share fell; Rhys Thomas having failed to mention frequently enough that he’s a doctor and was in Afghanistan. Jonathan Edwards will be spooked too. He lost half his majority in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, and the Conservatives smashed Labour into third place. With a bit of investment in the constituency from CCHQ, there is every prospect of the Tories biting Jonathan on the bum next time round.

While the doorstep in the Pembrokeshire constituencies had been showing solid support for the Tories but no reason for complacency, over in Carmarthenshire it was apparent that the Labour campaign had completely gone to bits. Labour Candidate Maria Carroll, though an avid Corbynite, was for some reason unpersoned by her party and ordered to stay away from Jezza’s big gig at Nantyci showground. The dear leader didn’t mention her or CE&D once in his speech.

Rattled, Carroll put out a video in which she adopted the conciliatory tone of a dying gypsy fortune-teller cursing the drunk driver who knocked her down: “your children and grandchildren will SUFFER!” Even this inspirational message failed to turn things around. Maria Carroll may have won the argument in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr; but only if the argument centred on whether or not she would lose to both Plaid and the Tories, and get the lowest vote in Carmarthenshire in the Labour Party’s entire history. To her credit, she achieved both. She was fortunate not to face a credible challenge from the LibDems, or Count Binface.

In receipt of this absolute shellacking from the electorate, many candidates would step back, slightly abashed, and opt for a moment of quiet reflection. Not Maria. Erupting on Twitter, she blamed every factor for her defeat except unpropitious astrological convergences, her own incompetence, and Oh! Jeremy Corbyn. Broadly speaking, she shared the view prevalent amongst members of the Corbyn cult; that the electorate got it wrong.

Certainly, the analysis among Corbynites seems to be that it wasn’t the manifesto that got it wrong; voters loved the classical socialist idea of taxing the rich until there aren’t any left, then starting on the moderately well off. It definitely wasn’t the leader either; he is a good, kind, honest, decent man who really cares for the poor. And, as we all know, there aren’t any poor Jews. No, it was vile, billionaire-owned mainstream media like The New Statesman, The Guardian and The Pembrokeshire Herald that brainwashed a majority of the electorate into thinking Corbyn was an unpatriotic halfwit who surrounded himself with commies, bomb-scatterers and anti-Semites. What made it worse was that they achieved this by the sneaky, underhand trick of reporting things that Corbyn had said and done.

Carroll tweeted that she wants to see “an end to the abusive power of the media”, and even expressed an aspiration to close the media down, so perhaps The Pembrokeshire Herald has had a lucky break.

Maria Carroll wasn’t alone on Thursday night. The Beast of Bolsover, Dennis Skinner, was finally told that his forty-year long end of the pier show was being shut down. Labour were turfed out of Sedgefield; once Tony Blair’s rock-solid stronghold. Redcar, Grimsby Fishdocks, Satanic Mills East, and a host of other seats which have been Labour since the dawn of time all voted with some enthusiasm for Boris and Brexit.

The strategy of forcing opposition parties to treat a first-past-the-post election as a referendum on a subject about which they didn’t agree worked an absolute treat for the Tories. Even so, a competently led Labour Party with a clearly defined position on Brexit could have won. In one credible poll, 43% of Labour voters who switched sides said it was leadership, not Brexit, that was their main concern.

For the time being, Corbyn remains at the helm of his stricken party, anxious to ensure that whoever succeeds him is chosen on his terms and from his cult. Any Tory with £3 in his pocket would do well to sign up to Labour now, for the unmissable opportunity of helping to elect Richard Burgon or Rebecca Long-Bailey as the Lenin-capped loon’s successor.

Entertaining as it may be to watch the Labour Party disintegrate, the Tories can allow themselves only a short gloat. Reality will start to bite soon, when they get stuck into what may not be the entirely effortless task of Getting Brexit Done.

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Cadno’s Carmarthenshire Election Special – Part 1

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Hello, readers.

It’s been a while since you’ve heard from this old fox.

What with things being the way they are, Cadno might have been silenced for good. But this is election time. It’s the season to be jolly with holly and —- golly gosh! What larks the election is!

Let’s start with Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr.

Jonathan Edwards is the incumbent and Plaid’s treasury spokesperson is likely to take some beating. He has had substantial media exposure for his virtually lone hand pummelling the various Conservative Brexit ministers and pushing the interests of his constituents, whether on miners’ pensions; WASPI; or rural regeneration. Jonathan Edwards has also had the Liberal Democrats and Greens step aside to give him a clear run as an unequivocally ‘remain’ supporting candidate. That is a largely symbolic step, given both parties’ performance last time out.

If God loves a trier, he must have a special place in his heart for the Conservatives’ Havard Hughes. If ever a candidate’s social media profile suggested that he was a wing nut short of a complete cuckoo clock, Havard’s is the one. It’s a tough sell for Havard Hughes. The policies that the Conservatives have delivered for the constituency in the past decade can be counted on the fingers of one thumb.

Last time saw a revival in the Labour vote as David Darkin, who moved from his home in Llanelli to former county councillor Anthony Jones’ spare room to get local credibility, rode the coattails of a successful Labour national campaign. This time, the red rose has put forward Maria Carroll as their candidate. Maria Carroll, Cadno is happy to clarify following recent media reports, is not an anti-Semite. She simply is unlucky enough to know one hell of a lot of them online and welcome them when they joined the Facebook group she administered which advised Party members accused of anti-Semitism. Some of those concerned turned out to be anti-Semites. It’s just bad luck.

The Brexit Party Limited’s candidate is Pete Prosser. What we do know about Pete Prosser is that he paid a fee to be selected as the BPL’s candidate. If his experience is like that of the 317 Limited Company candidates dropped in the cack by Nigel Farage when he pulled the plug on them, he must have deep pockets. 14 people like his Facebook page as the company’s candidate. Cadno thinks it’s best to leave it there.

While the Brexit Party Limited’s General Election website (you have to see it believe it) claims it can win in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Cadno thinks it safe to say such an outcome is highly unlikely. In spite of improving their parties votes in 2017, both Havard Hughes and David Darkin were well adrift of Jonathan Edwards at that election.

By definition, all Plaid Cymru seats are marginal; however, Jonathan Edwards’ is less marginal than others. It depends on whether enough leave voters are brassed off with Labour’s interesting Brexit proposals (renegotiate a deal and then – potentially – campaign against it) to take one look at Havard Hughes and think ‘as swivel-eyed loons go, we could do worse’. Or whether enough Conservatives think Maria Carroll MP is a price worth paying to get rid of one of their party’s most significant parliamentary goads.

It should be fun finding out.

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